Here’s where I think the IAG share price could go in 2021

first_img Alan Oscroft has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Hargreaves Lansdown. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Alan Oscroft | Sunday, 6th December, 2020 | More on: IAG Renowned stock-picker Mark Rogers and his analyst team at The Motley Fool UK have named 6 shares that they believe UK investors should consider buying NOW.So if you’re looking for more stock ideas to try and best position your portfolio today, then it might be a good day for you. Because we’re offering a full 33% off your first year of membership to our flagship share-tipping service, backed by our ‘no quibbles’ 30-day subscription fee refund guarantee. Enter Your Email Address “This Stock Could Be Like Buying Amazon in 1997” Simply click below to discover how you can take advantage of this. Click here to claim your copy now — and we’ll tell you the name of this Top US Share… free of charge! Image source: Getty Images center_img Our 6 ‘Best Buys Now’ Shares I’m sure you’ll agree that’s quite the statement from Motley Fool Co-Founder Tom Gardner.But since our US analyst team first recommended shares in this unique tech stock back in 2016, the value has soared.What’s more, we firmly believe there’s still plenty of upside in its future. In fact, even throughout the current coronavirus crisis, its performance has been beating Wall St expectations.And right now, we’re giving you a chance to discover exactly what has got our analysts all fired up about this niche industry phenomenon, in our FREE special report, A Top US Share From The Motley Fool. Here’s where I think the IAG share price could go in 2021 See all posts by Alan Oscroft We’ll surely dig over the bones of what happened to International Consolidated Airlines (LSE: IAG) in 2020 for a long time. But it’s only worthwhile if we use it to help make sense of what the future might hold for the IAG share price.IAG shares are up around 75% over the past month. And by the end of November, IAG was one of the top traded shares over at Hargreaves Lansdown, along with Rolls-Royce.5G is here – and shares of this ‘sleeping giant’ could be a great way for you to potentially profit!According to one leading industry firm, the 5G boom could create a global industry worth US$12.3 TRILLION out of thin air…And if you click here we’ll show you something that could be key to unlocking 5G’s full potential…Private investors in the UK appear bullish about the aviation business, then, on the back of Covid-19 vaccine successes. But, I do think optimism over 2021 prospects for the Rolls-Royce share price are a bit premature. So what about the IAG share price?Firstly, something I’ve spoken of before, but which bears repeating. We will not all get our jabs by Christmas and jet off into the New Year sun. No, vaccinating the UK’s population is a mammoth task. And it will be months before the vaccine even starts to reach the great majority of younger and healthier people.IAG share price pressureI just don’t see airline bookings for summer hols in 2021 coming anywhere near pre-pandemic levels. In fact, I expect 2022 bookings to remain depressed too. I really don’t foresee a return to 2019 flying volumes any time soon. So, I can see the IAG share price continuing under pressure for a good bit longer.And what about IAG’s business? Can it hold out until profits start to roll in again? On that score, I think things are looking reasonably comfortable. In September, IAG raised €2.7bn through the issue of new shares. That is a big chunk of new cash, and those who invested at a discount to the IAG share price at the time are already in profit.But it does come at the expense of dilution. Future earnings per share and dividends per share figures will be proportionately lower for the same overall amounts of cash. So even if IAG does return to earlier profit levels, it will be split more ways.What about debt?But new equity is better than greater debt, isn’t it? Well, I’m not taking my eye off IAG’s debt level, which has climbed sharply. At 30 September, net debt had reached €11,096m, up from €7,571m at the same point a year previously.That leads to a rather worrying figure pointed out by fellow Motley Fool writer Roland Head. Roland calculated IAG’s enterprise value, which is the total of all its shares at the current IAG share price, plus net debt. Roland worked it out at around £15.5bn. IAG’s enterprise value a year ago was about the same, even though future sales and profits now look set to drop significantly. So markets are still putting the same total valuation on future streams of earnings, while the outlook for those earnings has degraded significantly.On one hand, I rate IAG as one of the airline companies most likely to survive and grow over the long term. But on the other, I see really tough earnings prospects for at least a few years. In 2021, I think the IAG share price could be volatile. And I reckon it has a good chance of losing ground. I would like to receive emails from you about product information and offers from The Fool and its business partners. Each of these emails will provide a link to unsubscribe from future emails. More information about how The Fool collects, stores, and handles personal data is available in its Privacy Statement.last_img read more